By Tom Esslemont
BBC News, Baku

On the border of Azerbaijan s BP Shah Deniz chatter terminal, safety measures guards are taking place obligation approximately the clock.

They tour the 15km (9 mile) fence because a damp light rain spray crossways the lair of chatter pipes plus lubricate platforms at the back of it. bottle green plus blond flags fluster violently clothed in the wind.

You bottle distinguish why all endeavor is ended headed for defend the life-threatening - this is everyplace a large amount of Azerbaijan s energy wealth is secured.

Huge volumes of chatter are pumped outdated commencing base the Caspian Sea, refined plus fed by means of pipelines headed for Europe.

"Azerbaijan is well developed representing the pipeline headed for happen. It may possibly obtain a elongated time"
Vukar BayramovBaku-based analyst

Pipeline proposal gains momentum

EU seeks headed for make bigger energy grids

In the future years, Azerbaijan plus the Shah Deniz chatter bury may possibly be present next to the tenderness of Europe s energy needs.

The dispute connecting Ukraine plus Russia prior this year, which not here thousands of homes clothed in Eastern Europe clothed in the cold, has curved chatter hooked on a burning copy here.

Energy providers clothed in countries comparable Bulgaria, Hungary plus Austria boast pledged monetary hold headed for a new to the job chatter pipeline called Nabucco which, proviso built, would rely taking place Azerbaijan headed for bestow the infrastructure representing transporting extra chatter westwards.

And it would a large amount apt activate at this point next to Shah Deniz.

If Nabucco gets the go-ahead, the pipeline would rival the projected Russian South brook pipeline plus would transfer 31 billion cubic metres of chatter annually via 2020.

Diversification

The Shah Deniz life-threatening by now provides extra than 8bn cubic metres of chatter for every annum, a large amount of which is transported by means of a pipeline by Georgia plus taking place headed for Turkey.

See designed Nabucco chatter pipeline route

But it is regularly lubricate with the intention of financial records representing Azerbaijan s wealth.

In the capital, Baku, which is a number of 30km (19 miles) commencing Shah Deniz, you solitary boast headed for glare next to the flamboyant gold-stoned facades of the 19th Century buildings headed for acquire a signification of come again? the lubricate boom did representing the scaling-down extra than 100 time ago.

"Europe must be present a great deal extra attracted clothed in diversifying its chatter food "
Shahmar MovsumovAzeri lubricate Fund

Europe immobile faces chatter quandary

Some chief Azeri economists have faith in with the intention of lubricate creation has at this moment peaked, heightening the hardship representing diversification.

"Azerbaijan is well developed representing the pipeline headed for happen. It may possibly obtain a elongated time. It may possibly obtain six before seven years, except I ponder with the intention of clothed in terminology of money, in attendance are as much as necessary funds," says Vukar Bayramov, chairman of the Baku-based Centre representing fiscal plus party Development.

However, the administration denies with the intention of vanishing lubricate creation is the raison d'?tre representing not up to standard the pipeline headed for exit ahead.

"My own examination is with the intention of Europe must be present a great deal extra attracted clothed in diversifying its chatter food and... defending themselves commencing the form of procedures with the intention of happened prior this year," says Shahmar Movsumov, executive manager of the Azeri lubricate Fund, a administration division collection positive headed for hold sway over the revenue commencing lubricate plus gas.

Most nation clothed in the administration are optimistic concerning prospects representing Nabucco. except in attendance is immobile a key stumbling stop headed for its eventual construction.

Russian pressure

If Nabucco is headed for go down it willpower rely not immediately taking place Azeri gas, except too taking place chatter commencing focal Asia everyplace countries now vend chatter headed for Russia - the realm Ukraine blamed representing spiraling rotten the taps prior this year.

No-one requests headed for get behind this position extra than Russia s ambassador headed for Azerbaijan, Vasili Istratov.

"As further because I m aware, in attendance is thumbs down resolution in use wherever clothed in focal Asia headed for manipulate Nabucco because a pipeline headed for transfer chatter headed for Europe. proviso with the intention of resolution is living being in use with the intention of s their decision, it s their right," he says.

I request him whether he thinks Russia is putting heaviness taking place Turkmenistan plus additional countries clothed in focal Asia headed for appraise headed for deter them commencing promotion chatter headed for the Nabucco pipeline consortium.

Mr Istratov s comeback was short: "Russia is purchasing with the intention of gas. Is it heaviness before is it not pressure, immediately clash clothed in the market"

Turkmenistan is situated hundreds of miles crossways the broken up Caspian Sea.

Even proviso its administration does have the same opinion headed for vend chatter headed for the Nabucco consortium, it willpower obtain a feat of manufacturing radiance headed for transfer the chatter crossways the irrigate clothed in enjoin headed for shun edifice the pipeline by means of Russia.

Mr Bayramov is obstinate Nabucco willpower happen, even if he is not definite proviso it bottle avoid preclude impending energy disputes connecting Europe plus Russia.

"I m not definite proviso Azerbaijan bottle keep upright safe relations by Russia plus Europe," he said.

"If Nabucco is not approved, at that moment the ruling political party willpower boast fewer chance headed for be safe relations by equally Europe plus Russia. [Russia] is not a unwavering partner - immediately glare next to the hottest crisis."

Poverty

But Mr Bayramov does not ponder the harms willpower stop in attendance representing Azerbaijan.

If Nabucco goes ahead, he thinks it willpower inescapably head start headed for a widening chasm connecting full plus meager clothed in the country.

He told me a great deal of the wealth commencing lubricate plus chatter revenues is living being absorbed hooked on the royal coffers, by insufficiently spin rotten representing the realm s poor.

The administration estimates with the intention of 15% of nation aware beneath the poverty procession though a number of economists, counting Mr Bayramov, plunk it a great deal advanced next to 25%.

Some villages not further commencing Baku boast equal been exclusive of a chatter contribute representing the keep on 17 years.

The Nabucco pipeline may possibly offer Azerbaijan a piquant opportunity of extra prosperity; plus Europe may possibly too be present next to an advantage.

But it is doubtful proviso nation next to the foot stop of Azeri club willpower help next to all.

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